Welcome back to the second edition of On the Mend. The first edition was a hit and provided some quality feedback on key free agents in 2007. In this edition, I will focus on the AFC North and the NFC South.
Remember, I covered only those players that have or had fantasy value (or could have it, perhaps). I will kick start things with the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens have only one player worthy of fantasy value on the mend in 2007. Fantasy favorite Musa Smith, running back, will be looking at the off-season in unrestricted free agent status. Smith’s uncertainty with the franchise will become known in March as I do not expect Baltimore to re-sign him. If no one does pick him up, I do expect him back but his injuries have been to much for Baltimore to bear and remember Jamal Lewis is only turning the corner on 27 years old. Smith rotated with Mike Anderson as the backup to Lewis but if Smith is not brought back to the Ravens, I expect second year running back P.J. Daniels to fill the void he will leave. Baltimore might also pursue another running back in the NFL Draft, possible a late bloomer like Chris Henry (Arizona) or Danny Ware (Georgia). Musa Smith is an interesting free agent that is likely to land a job somewhere competing for a backup role. He could land in Cleveland, Chicago, Pittsburgh or Arizona. His fantasy value is dropping like Lee Suggs’ value dropped, especially if he doesn’t re-sign with Baltimore.
The Bengals have two noteworthy players on the mend in 2007, unrestricted free agent wide-out Kelly Washington and restricted free agent running back Chris Perry. Kelly Washington has Greg Lewis-type value in a dynasty league. If Washington can get on to a club in 2007, which he should, his value is still limited. A healthy Antonio Chatman should replace Washington in 2007. Chris Perry’s value depends on the tender he receives. Perry is a great #4 running back in PPR leagues but has been hurt more than he has been healthy. I do see Perry returning for one last go-around with Cincinnati. He still has strong fantasy value because he is handcuffed to Rudi Johnson, but health is always a concern. I think you can compare his dynasty value to that of say, Jerious Norwood.
Cleveland has no player of any meaningful fantasy significance on this list. Yes, wide receiver/return man Dennis Northcutt is slated to be an unrestricted free agent, but regardless of where he lands, his fantasy value is still towards the nil on my radar. As for who will replace him, youngster Josh Cribbs is expected to, no big surprise here. Move along.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have one major question mark that intertwines fantasy with reality. The “Dump Truck” Najeh Davenport is expected to be an unrestricted free agent. He wasn’t used in the role that most fans would have liked to see but he also wasn’t acclimated to this system as well as he should have been. I think that Pittsburgh might let Davenport walk. Why? I have no legitimate reason to be honest. History shows the Rooney’s reluctance to toss money around like say Dan Snyder or Jerry Jones. It always works out in the Steelers favor though. If Davenport does walk, I expect a team like Philadelphia, Tampa Bay, Denver, or even Kansas City to pursue Davenport. I think Willie Parker’s growth as an every-down back will push Davenport out of the Steel City. Davenport still has tremendous fantasy value if he lands in the right situation. As for his replacement, Pittsburgh may look towards the draft or even go after Musa Smith.
As I hop on the Live Wire tour bus and cruise down south to cover the NFC South, my first stop will be in Atlanta. Quarterback Matt Schaub is a restricted free agent and wide receiver Ashley Lelie is an unrestricted free agent. Matt Schaub is likely to receive a first round tender and therefore isn’t expected to leave Atlanta in 2007. Whoever the new coach is in Atlanta, he would be crazy to let Schaub walk. Schaub still has tremendous; I mean tremendous fantasy value for whenever he walks out from behind Michael Vick’s shadow. One more year fantasy geeks, just one more year. Wide receiver Lelie’s fantasy value is near that of the rock in my backyard if he stays in Atlanta, which I do not expect him to. Lelie will be given the opportunity to walk and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him land in Tennessee or San Francisco. Lelie has talent, but his ego is like Terrell Owens. I am sure one year in Atlanta may make him more humble though. Lelie’s value will only rise if he leaves Atlanta. As for who could replace him, will it matter with Vick as the quarterback?
Carolina has no fantasy value on the mend this year except for wide receiver Drew Carter in fantasy leagues. Drew Carter is a restricted free agent and is expect to be back in Carolina but his value reminds me of Vincent Jackson’s, too little performance with too much hype. His fantasy owners will be waiting for that one big year but I do not see it coming.
New Orleans is like Carolina as they have only 1 noteworthy player to mention and he is a restricted free agent. Terrance Copper, one of Sean Payton’s favorites, will be back in New Orleans. Fantasy owners should still hang on to this kid though.
Tim Rattay is the only player worth mentioning in terms of fantasy value. He is expected to be an unrestricted free agent this March. With a quarterback battler looming in Tampa, I am expecting Rattay to be brought back to compete with Chris Simms and Bruce Gradkowski, unless the Bucs go after a quarterback in the draft. Other than that, you can move along because there is nothing else to see here.
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