Saturday, December 2, 2006

Campbell's Soup

Buzz comes and goes with certain players. Hype also comes and goes with certain players. Joseph Addai has a strong buzz right now. Mark Clayton is nothing but hype. Where is the median? Is it Jason Campbell? Campbell's hype as the future in Washington dominated airwaves in the capitol after the NFL Draft in 2005. Campbell's buzz see-sawed with Mark Brunell's inconsistent play the last two years, but two weeks ago, Jason Campbell made his first start as the Redskins' leading signal caller.

In a general fantasy scoring system (1 point per 20 yards passing, 6 points per touchdown), Campbell has been effective the in both of his starts. He accumulated 22.90 fantasy points week 11 in Tampa Bay and 16.80 fantasy points versus Carolina. Those are good numbers, especially if you own Matt Hasselbeck, Jake Delhomme, or Eli Manning.

With three of his next four match-ups against very vulnerable pass defenses (Atlanta, Philadelphia, at New Orleans, at St. Louis, Campbell could emerge as one of those late season heroes that helps win fantasy championships. Guys like Billy Volek, Kyle Boller, and Lee Suggs come to mind.

Atlanta is currently ranked 30th against the pass. They have a very overrated secondary that seems to make the highlight reel week in and week out. Philadelphia is ranked 4th against the pass in a very misleading manner. They can easily get burned but the secondary doesn't have to play as physical because opponents have run all over their front seven. New Orleans is ranked 6th in pass defense but have given up 20 passing touchdowns compared to just 5 interceptions in 11 games. The Rams are ranked 9th in pass defense but have allowed 16 touchdowns in 11 games.

Santana Moss has been hobbled with a hamstring injury since October, but he should start regaining his stamina and return to form this week against the Falcons. This will bode well for Campbell.

Campbell has no buzz whatsoever right now. With that said, there is also no hype surrounding him, so in no way can you claim him as an overrated quarterback. Campbell is only a hop, skip, and a jump away from being a "Silent but Deadly" call in my Game Day Wonders column.

I can't explain the silence surrounding Campbell.

The only thing I can explain and recommend is that if he is a free agent on your waiver wire, scoop him up now. He will win your fantasy team some playoff games, especially if you are stuck with Hasselbeck, Delhomme, Eli Manning, or own Trent Green, Rex Grossman, Charlie Frye, Michael Vick, or David Garrard.

Jason Campbell may have just reversed the curse of Campbell's Soup. Too bad it's too late for Donovan McNabb or the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Friday, December 1, 2006

Is this the beginning of the end...

...of life as we know it in Denver? With Mike Shanahan at head coach, Denver has only ever had one losing season in 12 years. That was the first year with Brian Griese taking over as the starting quarterback. With that in mind, Denver is currently 7-4, slotted as a wild card club, desperately trying to reach the pinnacle and topple San Diego in the AFC West. All while this is going on, they are tied with Kansas City (7-4), but are currently at a disadvantage division record-wise.

Jake Plummer has had his fair share of problems this season. He has 12 interceptions compared to 11 touchdowns, fumbled the ball 7 times, and has only thrown for more than 250 yards once this season. Yet, Denver is 40-19 with Jake Plummer as the starting quarterback, (2006 is the fourth season). Denver was only 34-30 in the four years where Brian Griese was the starting signal caller. As for John Elway's first four years as the starter in Denver, the Broncos were 44-20. Compare that to Plummer's first four seasons. Pretty unique, wouldn't you say?

So, what is the problem in Denver?

Why is Jay Cutler taking over at quarterback?

The problem is not necessarily the quarterback, Jake Plummer, it starts with the system. Denver can no longer produce a running attack in which where any average running back can succeed. Those days are long gone. You will not see Denver produce any Olandis Gary's or Reuben Droughns' any time soon. The offensive line is not as punishing as it was, say just 2 years ago.

I have to question whether or not left tackle Erik Pears is fit for this system. Jake Plummer struggled immensely from pressure out of the left side. Sure, most quarterbacks do suffer from blind side pressure, that's common sense, but it seemed that the pressure was more often and denser from that side of the line.

Tight ends have always been key in this systematic structure as well. Shannon Sharpe, Dwayne Carswell, and Jeb Putzier highlight the tight end position over 11 of the past 12 years in Denver. Sharpe was a good blocker, but an even better playmaker. Carswell was an outstanding blocker but a below average receiver. Putzier was an all-around student that was solid in every facet as he learned under Sharpe and Carswell. You can't undermine the importance of the tight end in the zone blocking scheme used in Denver.

Denver is still a top ten rushing team, due in part to Plummer's struggles. But, Jay Cutler can be expected to struggle just like Jake Plummer has all year. His arm strength may be top notch but it takes more of a game management style to succeed in this system for anyone not named John Elway.

If Denver was in the NFC, they would be 9-2 or 10-1, right now, there would be no quarrels over benching Jake Plummer, and the uncertainty, yes the uncertainty, would not be there.

Ah, yes, uncertainty usually marks the beginning of the end. Just ask Dallas after Troy Aikman retired. Just ask Jeff Fisher when Tennessee had to start dumping players as cap casualties. Shoot, just ask Green Bay fans in a year or two once Brett Favre retires.

The uncertainty is drowning the Denver front office. The ownership is still looking for someone to play up to John Elway's level. That is what is eating away at this franchise. It took 9 starting quarterbacks to replace Aikman in Dallas. So far, Denver is working on their third since Elway. Why?

Denver is a playoff team and if Jay Cutler falters just a little bit, every writer in the sports world will be questioning this and bringing more heat onto Denver and Mike Shanahan. The process may take a couple years or so, but this may truly be the beginning of the end for Denver. They need to pray that Jay Cutler is the real deal or else they will be forced to eat a fist full of dollars and watch as a proven winner sits on the bench.

Oh, and for those that say Plummer can't win the big game. Dan Marino, Jim Kelly, Peyton Manning, and Donovan McNabb "can't" win the big game either. That's not such a bad class to be a part of. If a quarterback is known to not win the big games, that is where the 21 other players on the field need to step up.

I liked Jay Cutler when I was preparing to cover the NFL Draft for LiveWire last year. I just do not know how successful he will be in the NFL. Making such a call is a crap shoot. He has the tools to do so, but will John Elway's success haunt him into mediocrity?

Thursday, November 30, 2006

The Rudi Misconception

Since 2004 when Rudi Johnson was deemed starter in Cincinnati, he has essentially owned the Baltimore Ravens run defense. He is averaging 88.4 rushing yards per game while crossing the goal line 4 times in the last three showdowns. You can't misconceive Rudi Johnson as a bad play tonight, whatsoever. With rain and wind in the forecast, we will see a heavy dose of Rudi Johnson tonight. I am expecting Johnson to pull away with 27 carries, 104 rushing yards, and 1 touchdown tonight.

Jamal Lewis Tidbit

Even though I am expecting a less-than-positive showing from Jamal Lewis (questionable) tonight, he is expected to start. In Lewis' five visits to Paul Brown Stadium in Cincinnati, he has gained at least 100 yards each showing. As far as my Game Day Wonder's report on Jamal Lewis, I am expecting a better number from my projections, a day later. Expect Lewis' 100-yard game streak to end as he carries the ball 14 times for 67 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Dallas Clark Owns



Pretty cool, thanks Moose.

Game Day Wonders Week 13 Edition

Has your cable provider ruined your fantasy season by not offering the NFL Network? Will you be starting Rudi Johnson but following the game by a delayed statistical breakdown on some major sports web site? Why do that? Click here if your cable provider does not carry the NFL Network. Our Live Stats feed automatically updates while the game is in play. Just thought I would let you know. Now, settle down, gain back some composure, put down that beer and read the week thirteen edition of Game Day Wonders!

The Hot List

  • Okay, okay, Travis Henry pulled a DeShaun Foster on me last week. Everything added up, the match-up, the statistics, and my gut instinct. What happened? Just look at my DeShaun Foster projections through out the season. I will not miss on Henry this week, I promise you. Henry is facing the same Indianapolis Colts' run defense he shredded 8 weeks ago. The only difference this time around is that he will reach the end zone. Indianapolis is still ranked 31st in the league against the run. Start Henry with confidence, he will rip off 114 yards and 1 touchdown week 13.
  • Are you looking for a frightening, yet fantastic play this week? Look no further than Aaron Brooks. Yes, Oakland will be taking on a porous pass defense. Yes, Brooks has thrown 3 interceptions compared to 2 touchdowns since returning from injury. Yes, new offensive coordinator John Shoop is more conservative than Fox News. The fact of the matter is though that this new, anticipated playbook could play into the hands of Aaron Brooks. Mario Williams, DeMeco Ryans and company will not get enough pressure on this paperbag offense in Oakland to affect Aaron Brooks, you heard it here first! Expect Aaron Brooks to throw for 289 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception this week. If you own Matt Hasselbeck, Michael Vick, or Eli Manning, go grab Brooks and start him.
  • Expect another rookie running back to run all over the Philadelphia Eagles candy cane defense this week. DeAngelo Williams is averaging 112 total yards over the last two weeks with DeShaun Foster banged up, even though Foster has played the last two weeks. For the record, Foster is once again listed as questionable for Monday night, so don't be a bonehead, make sure you bench him! The Eagles are giving up just under 140 rushing yards to opponents this season. Expect DeAngelo Williams confiscate the starting job from Foster on Monday night, in front of America. Get ready for 121 rushing yards, 33 receiving yards, and 2 touchdowns for Williams this Monday night.

The Cold List

  • With his groin injury looking like it has disappeared, Fred Taylor is still not a good play this week, especially in non-PPR leagues. I have been knit-picking against running backs facing the Dolphins' defense all season, and in each case I made the right call. The Dolphins have only allowed 5 rushing touchdowns in 11 games. They also have limited the big play making ability of opposing running backs by only allowing 2 rushing gains of 20 yards or more all season. Taylor has been a very dependable back all season, more dependable than Tatum Bell or Willie Parker. He will hit a wall this week. I am projecting Fred "Everyother Season" Taylor to produce 52 total yards and no scores.
  • The New York Giants are crumbling from within, remember I kept you posted with that back in the summer? Well, the walls are starting to come down and it all starts with the quarterback, Eli Manning. Eli Manning is at the forefront. Quite frankly, he has looked like Kyle Boller! In his last four games, he only has 3 touchdowns compared to 7 interceptions. The Dallas defense just keeps improving and they are stuffing the run. This offense revolves around Tiki Barber and when he doesn't get it going, it will be tough for the rest of the dominoes to fall in place. Expect this downward spiral to keep spinning. Manning will pass for 202 yards, 0 touchdowns and 2 interceptions this week. The blind side pressure will be too much!
  • Foot injuries are tough to recover from in the beginning, but once they heal, running backs tend to take over right from where they left off, ask Shaun Alexander. This week, you have to look elsewhere if you own Jamal Lewis. Lewis missed practice again Wednesday and the team boarded the plane with a major question mark surrounding Lewis. I am not too sure if he will play this week, but if he does, I still do not expect much production-wise, even if it is Cincinnati we are talking about. Steer clear of my main man this week, if I have to, I will reiterate it via cell phone (get it?). If, and I mean if Jamal Lewis plays Thursday night, expect limited production due to his foot injury. So little that I will project it at less than 25 yards.

Silent but Deadly

  • With Frank Gore listed as questionable with a leg bruise, Michael Robinson is a conditional "Silent but Deadly" start this week. Frank Gore is expected to play Sunday, according to the Monday presser, but we need to watch this situation carefully. Gore missed portions of practice on Wednesday. Gore's status in short-yardage situations is up in the air as well. We haven't heard of Michael Robinson since he ran in 2 touchdowns against Philadelphia week 3. New Orleans is not the easiest team to run on but San Francisco has run on the likes of Chicago. If Gore is a game-time decision, we should expect him to be a go, but Michael Robinson will see some action as well, especially in the red zone as he is more "sure-handed" than Frank Gore. If this situation pans out as I think it will; Michael Robinson should get 9 carries for 29 yards and 1 touchdown. That's decent production for all of you running back-deprived fantasy owners out there.
  • With Minnesota's stout run defense coming into town Sunday, neither Thomas Jones nor Cedric Benson may look like good plays. The Vikings are allowing only 2.8 yards per carry to opposing running backs. Okay, okay, what is this nut getting to? Start Bernard Berrian. Rex Grossman has looked like Kyle Orton in recent weeks. Berrian's name has dropped off of the fantasy circuits since his injury even though he returned last week with 5 receptions for 104 yards. The run game will be had by the Purple People Eaters and Grossman will have to throw to beat them. I expect Berrian to take full advantage of this secondary, even if he attracts the more than necessary attention we expect. Oh yeah, Minnesota may be #1 against the run, but they are #31 against the pass. That should refortify your confidence. I expect 8 receptions for 140 yards and 1 touchdown for Berrian week 13. That is double the production that ensued when he faced off against the Vikings earlier this year.

After a confident feeling last week, some players let me down for the first time in a while. I am looking to rebound this week with some unusual calls. If you have a pair big enough to start Aaron Brooks (hey, so what if I like him), let me know via e-mail below. I want to give you props in the next week's column. As for the rest of you, I think I choked some of you up with my little Kobayashi stint from last week. I know, you know, we all know it was funny in a hot dog kind of way (Is that a way?). Keep your chins up, pray to the fantasy gods, and I send you my blessings.

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[Charles P. Dymeck is a fantasy sports writer for ffLiveWire.com and is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers of America. You can contact him at pete_dymeck04@yahoo.com]

 
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