Which players are on the mend in 2007? As I have discussed already, players like Antonio Bryant, D.J. Hackett, and Chris Perry will be on the mend. I still have two more editions to go, with a lot of fantasy value to be discussed. The AFC South and NFC North will be up to bat next. Let me begin with the dreadful Texans.
The Houston Texans have only one major question mark this upcoming free agency period, running back Ron Dayne. Ron Dayne is on his third team in two seasons and might be shown the door. With Houston looking to grab a back in either free agency or the draft, and with the return of Domanick Williams (formerly Davis), head coach Gary Kubiak may be shifting his ideology concerning Dayne. Houston was able to get by all year with a makeshift ground game. If Ron Dayne isn't re-signed, expect Wali Lundy to step in his place, but you can also bank on Houston targeting a running back in the draft, and as early as the first round. Either way, Dayne's dynasty value is about as shot as an Iraqi warehouse. Ron Dayne will be scooped up by someone, if he isn't re-signed, and he could catch on with a team needing a part-time power rusher, like Tampa Bay.
Dominic Rhodes couldn't quite take advantage of his situation this past year and isn't expected to be back with the Colts, unless he will accept a 1-year deal. Rhodes, an unrestricted free agent running back started all 16 regular season games but was outplayed by rookie Joseph Addai. I do think he will accept a 1-year deal because his services will not be needed anywhere else really. This one time 1,000-yard rusher has turned into more of a mentor, "needed when necessary" back like Kevin Faulk. Also, tight end Ben Utecht is a restricted free agent. I expect Indianapolis to bring him back. He is young and talented. Utecht played well in the slot for a tight end, especially when Brandon Stokley went down with an injury. Utecht has strong fantasy upside, his value is larger than Chris Baker's and Anthony Fasano's.
In the quest to find a go-to wide receiver, the Jacksonville Jaguars may have come up short again with their underachieving trio. Restricted free agent wide receiver Ernest Wilford is expected to be back for another year as he will garner a 2nd or 3rd tender, and no front office in the NFL would spend a pick that high on Wilford. I expect Wilford to return with a 1-year salary of $800,000. He is the most dependable wide-out since Jimmy Smith retired and isn't expected to go anywhere. Tight end Kyle Brady and running back LaBrandon Toefield are unrestricted free agents but neither hold any significant fantasy value.
The Tennessee Titans are loaded with question marks as they have three noteworthy players expected to be unrestricted free agents. First, running back Chris Brown, may have played his final game as a Tennessee Titan. His once promising career has been slowed down by a string of injuries, including an un-evasive turf toe injury. We already know who will take over in Chris Brown's role, his name is LenDale White. As for where Chris Brown is likely to end up and the fantasy impact he might have, strong rumors link Brown to St. Louis, Oakland, and Kansas City. Whichever way you have it, he still holds some value but we may never see what it may translate too as he is nothing more than a backup unless injuries occur and he reintroduces himself to stardom. Wide receiver Bobby Wade is expected to be an unrestricted free agent as well. His future lies in special teams and if Courtney Roby can come back to health, you can expect him to fill in the void Wade will leave in Tennessee. Drew Bennett should be re-signed in Tennessee but he may have a hurdle or two to jump before March. With that said, I will jump all over the cloudiness of this situation and say Bennett is not brought back. As for his replacement, it should be Brandon Jones but the Titans could land a good wide receiver in the second round to help out Vince Young, maybe former Tennessee Volunteer Robert Meachem. As for where Drew Bennett would land, I could envision him landing on a successful team looking for a dependable receiver. Maybe Carolina, Minnesota, Atlanta, or Miami. Bennett has strong fantasy value but it could drop significantly if we recall his career in Tennessee as his best years.
The NFC North has been criticized as being the worst division in pro football but free agency should help out in eradicating that thought. The Chicago Bears have no player of fantasy significance on the mend. Wide receiver Justin Gage will be an unrestricted free agent. This former fifth round pick will get scooped up by someone in camp and I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see him back in Chicago playing on special teams.
The Detroit Lions have two players of significance on the mend in 2007. Wide receiver Mike Furrey will be an unrestricted free agent and running back Kevin Jones is out with a severe Lis Franc injury. As for Furrey, I am not sure he will be back with the organization or can top the season he had in 2006. He was a great; I mean great, waiver pickup, especially in PPR leagues. If he does not return, I do not think Detroit can find a guy to replace Furrey, who led the NFC in receptions with 98. If he does return, I expect him to return to form but you should perceive his numbers to not be quite as high in 2007. I repeat, I do not think he will be back unless the Lions waste a tag on him, be it franchise or transition. He has an acceptable mid-level fantasy grade where his value may have peaked. He isn't worth more than a third wide receiver due to the prospects of normality the rest of his career. As for Kevin Jones, his injury casts a certain doubt over his long-term health. Lis Franc injuries are different for everybody as you can miss more than a year or bounce back rather quickly like Brian Westbrook did. If Mike Martz returns as offensive coordinator, I do believe he could lure back Marshall Faulk. Here is one thing you can count on though, Detroit will not, and I repeat, will not draft a running back in the first round of the draft. If the worst case scenario comes into play, and Jones will be out a long time, and Faulk does not return to the football field, the Lions will need to re-sign either Aveion Cason or Arlen Harris. Kevin Jones fantasy value is currently in limbo. He is worth a long-term stronghold but other than that, I would stay away until we are updated with good news on his condition.
Ahman Green is expected to leave the Packers' organization. He has had a good career there and maybe looking to play into a part-time role elsewhere. He made over three million dollars less in 2006 than he made in 2005 and seems to be able to adjust to the role playing back status if he has to. He has connections to Andy Reid in Philadelphia and I wouldn't be surprised if he didn't sign on with the Eagles to compliment Brian Westbrook. That situation makes perfect sense right now but the only thing that is certain is the fact that Green has his foot out of the door in Green Bay already. As for who could be his replacement, it will not be Noah Herron or Vernand Morency. Green Bay will target a running back in the upcoming draft and might be willing to take their chances on a back like Michael Bush, Kenny Irons, or Tony Hunt. Stay tuned to this situation as things could get even murkier as we await Brett Favre's decision. His decision will impact the direction this franchise will go.
The Minnesota Vikings will have three wide receivers hit the market this off-season as unrestricted free agents. Billy McMullen, Travis Taylor, and Bethel Johnson are expected to hit the market. Only Taylor holds any fantasy value. McMullen and Johnson should hit the market and test the waters but don't be surprised to see them back in Minnesota by the time training camp opens. Travis Taylor could be a complimentary role as a slot receiver but his off-the-field character problems may have cost him dearly. I expect Taylor to sign on somewhere but his fantasy value is nil. As for who will replace Taylor, the evidence suggests Minnesota is targeting a rookie receiver, maybe Dwayne Jarrett, Sidney Rice, or Ted Ginn Jr. If Minnesota drafts one of these rookies, their fantasy upside is tremendous, regardless of who is quarterback in Minnesota.
Stay tuned for the final version of "On the Mend," which should hit the web later this week.
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