Before the 2007 fantasy football season swings into high gear, one aspect of the sport needs to be examined. Keepers. The definition of a keeper is one player that you will keep for consecutive seasons. In the exchange for that player, you must give something back to your league, for example, that specific player's round value. Get it? If not, here is a brief but accurate example. If you drafted Larry Johnson in the first round of your league's draft last year, you must give up this year's first round pick to keep Larry Johnson. This type of rule is the most standard among keeper rules although there are many indifferent rules in leagues around the world.
In this first edition of Keeper League Targets, I will examine the ever-important running back situation. This will be a list of valuable keepers but you you will not see LaDainian Tomlinson, Larry Johnson, Frank Gore, Willie Parker or Steven Jackson on this list, as they are studs and obvious keeper options. Excited yet? If you lost any of that "fantasy fever" a couple weeks ago, get ready to be excited because it will feel like it's August after you read this article.
Immediately, one guy that I am excited about for the 2007 fantasy season is Cedric Benson from the Chicago Bears. Of course, he is intertwined with Thomas Jones in a running back by committee but Benson has elevated his game towards the end of the season. From weeks 13 through 17, Cedric Benson carried the ball 7 more times than Thomas Jones. Benson also finished with more yardage and the same amount of touchdowns. Check out the following chart on the Benson/Jones comparisons from weeks 13-17:
| Player | Carries (avg) | Yards (avg) | Total Touchdowns |
| Cedric Benson | 68 (13.6) | 335 (67) | 2 |
| Thomas Jones | 61 (12.2) | 265 (53) | 2 |
When all is said and done though, Jones did finish with a better statistical season, although his production tapered towards the regular season finale. Could this be just a formality? I don't think so. Cedric Benson was able to find better running lanes as compared to Jones and the only times Jones would break through for a large run are on superb run blocking where tight end Desmond Clark was involved. Cedric Benson makes things happen when he is on the field. He may not be as favorable with the front office as Thomas Jones is but Benson is younger, and looks better. With all things considered, you will have more value keeping Cedric Benson as he will be a strong keeper than you would keeping Thomas Jones, as Jones was drafted higher than Benson is virtually every league.
There is a sense of strong commitment in the air in San Diego, especially when your running back has destroyed opponents in his pursuit of breaking records. With that said, a restricted free agent has emerged by the way-side. Michael Turner, the speedy yet powerful back that people love to watch, isn't expected back in San Diego next year. The Chargers will be expected to put a 2nd round tender on Turner, and there are many teams in a disposition when it comes to their ground game. I expect Buffalo, Green Bay, the New York Jets, and even Atlanta to make strong push for Turner. He averaged 6.3 yards on 80 carries in 2006. In his three year career, he is averaging 6 yards per carry on 157 attempts. Turner is also critical in second and third down situations where he passed the line marker 24 times this past season. He will come real cheap in round value keeper scenarios as if he was drafted at all; it was late in your league's draft. Even if he hangs around San Diego one more year, his value is strong considering his upside in an unrestricted free agent market. Keep this guy around at all costs, since it will cost you practically nothing.
The real rookie of the year, Maurice Jones-Drew had a remarkable season as a rookie, even though he went undrafted in most leagues. He averaged 5.7 yards per carry and 9.5 yards per reception. He finished his rookie year with 1,377 total yards and 15 touchdowns. Fred Taylor is standing in his way though. Jones-Drew owners shouldn't have to worry as Fred Taylor himself is unsure of his future in Jacksonville. As we seen Jones-Drew bounce his way off of defensive tackles and linebackers, we will see him bounce his way towards the higher end of the fantasy spectrum. Buy into him now if you own him in a keeper league. His value is still underappreciated even though he helped win many fantasy championships this year.
Another rookie that had a great year but when a little unnoticed was Joseph Addai. He finished with 1,406 total yards and 8 touchdowns despite not starting a single regular season game. He had two 100-yard rushing performances, including a 171-yard night against the Philadelphia Eagles. He outshined soon-to be unrestricted free agent Dominic Rhodes and also made Edgerrin James an afterthought. If Rhodes doesn't return to Indianapolis, we should see a spike in Joseph Addai's receptions as he proved to be dependable in the passing game. Rhodes hauled in 36 receptions compared to Addai's 40. If Addai is the sole back in this system, it shouldn't be a problem for him to compile more than 55 receptions year in and year out, which makes him even more valuable, especially in PPR leagues.
The thunder is pounding down on the Big Apple as Brandon Jacobs will continue where Tiki Barber left off. In 134 career carries, Jacobs has 16 touchdowns. That is one touchdown per 8.3 attempts. Sure, those numbers are inflated due to his red zone capabilities, but he should see 200+ carries in 2007, even if the Giants pursue another "speedy" running back. Jacobs was probably a late round selection in your fantasy draft, so you get the Giants heir-apparent at virtually no cost to you.
After turning 28 on December 27th, Deuce McAllister still has a lot of life in him. As a starter and in every season he has played at least 14 games, McAllister is averaging 1,290 yards per season. Even as he shared the backfield with the prodigy Reggie Bush, McAllister tallied 1,057 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns in 2006, elevating him back into a fantasy superstar. His numbers should remain stable for 2007 if he remains healthy, which I expect since he isn't expected to tote the rock 300 or more time now with Bush in New Orleans. For what you paid in drafting him and his prospects for next season, I would hang on to McAllister. He is still relatively young and has only played 4 full seasons in as a starting tailback, and only three as the sole carrier. Hang on to McAllister; he will be a great #2 running back in 2007.
If you play in a performance-based keeper league, with no round value destroying your chances at keeping some of the quality sleepers, than you must take a deep look at Edgerrin James. Firstly, he finished 2006 as a top 15 running back in the NFL. Secondly, he is the first running back to eclipse 1,000 yards in Arizona since 1998 where Adrian Murrell did it. Sure, he averaged only 3.4 yards per carry for Arizona, but he did tally 1,159 rushing yards and 6 touchdowns. No one is talking about James but the fact is that he is one of the best running backs to hitthe field on Sunday's in the last 10 to 15 years. With Ken Whisenhunt coaching in Arizona, I think James will be a strong sleeper in 2007. If I were you, and you play in a performance-based keeper league where fantasy points dictate what you give up for your keepers, take a long, long look at Edgerrin James, I think he is worth a roster spot in the off-season.
Marion Barber made a splash in 2006 with his 16 total touchdowns. The fact is that I am not sold on him being a strong runner between the twenties. But, if he should see more work, he should see the end zone a lot once again in 2007. You shouldn't have to pay a high price for him as he was a late round selection in most leagues, but I recommend hanging on to him. Also, there are rumors swirling in Dallas that Julius Jones could be dealt. If Jones is dealt, and Barber takes over as the primary ball carrier, his status is elevated into a sure-fire first round selection. Hang on to him as his value will only increase.
With DeShaun Foster falling apart in 2006, a huge door opened up for DeAngelo Williams in Carolina. Despite missing time to injuries and sharing the ball in a running back by committee, Williams was able to stockpile 814 total yards and only 2 touchdowns. In the five games where Williams carried the pigskin at least 13 times, he averaged 81.4 rushing yards per outing. He also proved to be very productive in the passing game, as he hauled in 33 receptions. If you go back to 2003 and watch Brian Westbrook, you will see so many comparisons between him then and DeAngelo Williams now. Hang on to Williams, as he once again proves, that the 2006 rookie running back class may end up being the best ever.
With Corey Dillon nearing the end of his career, and possibly being on his way out in Foxboro, Laurence Maroney has strong keeper value. If Maroney didn't play in a running back by committee, he would be a legitimate top 6 fantasy draft pick. It is the same old song for Maroney. He wasn't drafted high, or at all in some leagues, and if you can keep him at a relatively low cost to you, don't have a brain freeze, keep him.
As you can see, from veterans Edgerrin James and Deuce McAllister to youngsters Maurice Jones-Drew and Cedric Benson, there are many valuable running backs worth hanging on to considering their value in keeper leagues. Stay tuned to this series as I will feature quarterbacks and wide receivers/tight ends as well.
[C.P. Dymeck is a sports writer for ffLiveWire.com and is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers of America. You can contact him at pete_dymeck04@yahoo.com]
1 comment:
Good words.
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